~World news

 Image credit: Samuel Faber via Pixabay/UNEP. Illustrative image; it is not a chart from the report. Even if governments deliver their climate pledges and maintain similar efforts, global temperatures are projected to reach about 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels this century, according to UNEP’s [Emissions Gap Report 2026](https://www.unep.org/en/publications/report/emissions-gap-report-2026), released on October 21. Under policies already in force, the projection is 2.8°C; even the most optimistic scenario combining national pledges with additional net-zero targets reaches 2.1°C. The report says passing 1.5°C is now unavoidable. Its “lowest possible overshoot” pathway would limit the peak to 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century and return to 1.5°C or below by 2100, with about a 50% chance. That is a scenario, not a forecast or a guarantee. To follow that route, global emissions would need to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025. Current national pledges would deliver only a 5–8% reduction by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035. The pathway also depends on removing and permanently storing roughly 320 billion tonnes of CO₂ over the century—an uncertain technical and economic undertaking, not a replacement for cutting emissions now. UNEP says the outlook worsened since last year partly because of the United States’ formal withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised historical emissions estimates. The [Associated Press’ report](https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-global-warming-united-states-projections-0eff0561e0af1f3d7421a96d9db02ba9) adds that U.S. emissions rose by 133 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in 2025, driven by higher electricity demand and a rebound in coal generation. The UN report’s practical message is that the 1.5°C goal now means minimizing the overshoot and bringing temperatures back down; whether that happens depends on much faster emissions cuts and whether carbon removal proves feasible at the scale required.

 Conceptual illustration created for this report; it does not depict the actual market or attack. Drones struck Amiet Market in Abyei on Monday, October 19, and a fire spread to a nearby fuel depot. The market serves communities in the disputed border area between Sudan and South Sudan. Yohanna Akol Ngor, Abyei’s caretaker information minister, told the [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/f36b3c7d15be6b48efdc35eed7219d6d) and [Reuters](https://theprint.in/world/sudanese-drone-attack-killed-over-150-people-in-abyei-market-official-says/3077194/) on Tuesday that the death toll had risen to 153, from an earlier count of 73. The [UN’s October 20 briefing](https://transcripts.un.org/en/briefing/sg/2026-10-20) gave an initial figure of at least 28 civilians killed in attacks at Amiet and nearby Todach, with others injured or missing. It said the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) was still verifying casualties. These are reports from different stages and sites; the final toll has not been independently established. Responsibility and the intended target remain disputed. Abyei’s administration and South Sudan’s government blamed Sudan’s armed forces. A Sudanese military officer told AP that the army had struck fuel tankers it said were bound for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF); he claimed those killed were RSF members or people involved in fuel smuggling. AP could not independently verify the target or the identities of those killed. Médecins Sans Frontières said more than 20 wounded people, including critical cases and patients with burns, reached Ameth Bek Hospital. UNISFA deployed medical staff, firefighting equipment and quick-reaction forces. South Sudan said it summoned Sudan’s ambassador to protest. The next key step is UNISFA’s casualty verification and accounting for those still missing. Amiet is a major trading hub in Abyei, an oil-rich territory whose status has remained unresolved since South Sudan’s independence. The strike shows how Sudan’s civil war is affecting a border area and civilian commerce far from the main front lines.

A missile struck a densely populated residential area of Taiz on Tuesday, October 20, killing two teenage girls and wounding six other people, the [Associated Press reported](https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthis-saudi-fighting-8a036054a8f0cd38ff8ee0101947f708). AP attributed the attack to Houthi forces and described extensive damage to homes. It came a day after a Houthi missile strike killed 73 recruits at a government camp in Shabwa; see our [earlier report on the Shabwa attack](https://www.mushimu.com/post/9079). The wider emergency is affecting basic services. On October 20, UN Humanitarian Coordinator Laurent Bukera said in [a UN statement](https://yemen.un.org/en/324723-statement-humanitarian-coordinator-yemen-laurent-bukera-humanitarian-situation-ta%E2%80%99iz) that insecurity and road closures were keeping fuel and other vital supplies out of Taiz. Remaining food and fuel prices had more than doubled, water production in the city had fallen by half, and shortages threatened hospital electricity and medical oxygen. At a [UN Geneva briefing](https://transcripts.un.org/en/briefing/geneva/2026-10-20) that day, UNICEF’s Yemen representative said active fighting and shelling by both sides were making routes unsafe for trucks, so aid access would need to be negotiated with both parties. The UN is urging safe passage for food, medicine and humanitarian aid, and protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure. The reports available so far do not identify the missile’s intended target or provide a complete damage assessment. The UN’s account also cautions against attributing every blocked route to one side: insecurity from fighting on both sides is preventing safe passage. The immediate concern is whether residents can receive supplies before hospitals lose essential power and oxygen.

Nigeria confirmed its first Ebola case in the capital, Abuja, on Tuesday, October 20. Health Minister Muhammad Ali Pate said laboratory tests were positive in a woman who had recently travelled to Uganda. She developed symptoms on October 7 and was admitted to a private hospital in Abuja four days later, according to the [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/nigeria-ebola-first-case-africa-d39e454fbe1be1243e4e39fb46939f62). The minister said she is isolated and receiving care. Authorities have identified 44 contacts and begun tracing them. The [Reuters report](https://theprint.in/world/nigeria-confirms-an-ebola-case-health-minister-says/3077269/) and Nigerian public broadcaster [Voice of Nigeria](https://von.gov.ng/ebola-nigeria-confirms-imported-case-in-abuja-tracks-44-contacts/) also report the contact count; officials say it includes healthcare and travel-related contacts. The patient was described as stable by the Nigerian government. Update — Oct. 22: Africa CDC has called an extraordinary virtual meeting of African health ministers to discuss the outbreak's spread, the [AP reported on Oct. 21](https://apnews.com/article/c1329a2cad0a18dda4dff2e3adadb6ca). The U.S. CDC's [situation summary updated Oct. 20](https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html) describes the DRC outbreak as the second-largest Ebola outbreak on record and identifies Bundibugyo virus as its cause. Nigerian authorities have not publicly identified the strain in the Abuja case or confirmed that it is linked to the DRC outbreak; where the patient contracted the infection also remains under investigation. A [WHO situation update](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON619) describes the wider regional outbreak, but a direct link to the Abuja case remains unconfirmed. The next key update is whether any contacts develop symptoms and what laboratory analysis says about the virus.

Russian attacks killed at least 10 people across Ukraine on Oct. 20, according to the latest reports reviewed. The Associated Press cited regional police and emergency services for nine deaths in the Kyiv region, on the Kyiv–Odesa highway and near Dnipro. In a later update, Ukrinform reported one person killed and 12 injured in Kyiv city since midnight. The attacks also hit civilian services and energy infrastructure. Kyiv authorities told the Kyiv Independent that drones damaged two medical facilities in the city; its initial report recorded five injuries, while the later Ukrinform update put the citywide injury count at 12. Separately, Ukrenergo said new outages affected 12 regions, with emergency limits for industry and scheduled hourly cuts in some areas to avoid overloading damaged equipment. The figures refer to separate reports and locations; local assessments were continuing, so the toll may change. Ukraine’s energy ministry said facilities in seven regions were attacked overnight and in the morning. With winter approaching, the combination of civilian casualties, damage to medical sites and power disruption raises pressure on services across the country. The [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-norway-trump-rubio-witkoff-140895c6c0a1682c46f4fe197e056996), [Kyiv Independent](https://kyivindependent.com/power-outages-in-12-regions-after-russian-assault-on-ukraines-power-plants/) and [Ukrinform](https://www.ukrinform.net/amp/rubric-ato/4176435-russian-attacks-leave-one-dead-12-injured-in-kyiv-since-midnight.html) report the casualty and outage figures through named regional, city and energy officials. Russia said it struck logistics and port infrastructure; that claim has not been independently verified.

A collapse at an unpermitted open-pit gold mine in rural Chambero, Nariño, killed 14 miners and injured seven on Monday, October 19, according to regional authorities. Governor Luis Alfonso Escobar said rescue operations had ended that night. The remote area around Santa Bárbara de Iscuandé is reachable only by boat or small aircraft, complicating emergency access, the [Associated Press reported](https://apnews.com/article/bffbd24132af34a0cb14a414579d1e9b). The toll was also reported by [Reuters](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/14-dead-7-injured-in-colombia-illegal-gold-mine-collapse-4958516), which placed the collapse in the Chambero sector and said Escobar urged Colombia’s government and mining agencies to speed up formalization of informal and small-scale mining to improve safety standards. The Nariño government says two mine collapses in the department have killed 27 people in less than three months. The authorities have not announced what caused Monday’s collapse; the mine was described as operating without permits, and the governor called it informal.

 Caption: Editorial concept illustration; it does not depict the 1996 shootdown or the people involved. Florida authorities say a Miami judge signed an arrest warrant for former Cuban leader Raúl Castro on Monday, October 19, on a state charge of conspiracy to commit first-degree murder. The warrant concerns the 1996 shootdown of two civilian aircraft operated by Brothers to the Rescue. It adds a Florida case to a separate federal prosecution announced in May; it is an accusation, not a conviction. [Florida’s Department of Law Enforcement announced the warrant](https://www.fdle.state.fl.us/news/2026/october/icymi-attorney-general-james-uthmeier-secures-state-arrest-warrant-for-raul-castro); the signing by Chief Judge Ariana Fajardo Orshan was also reported by [AP](https://apnews.com/article/2575bf98dcceb57d9f806d4d7a91b023) and [El País](https://elpais.com/us/2026-10-19/una-jueza-de-miami-firma-una-orden-de-arresto-contra-raul-castro-por-el-derribo-de-las-avionetas-de-hermanos-al-rescate.html). On February 24, 1996, Cuban MiG fighters shot down two of three unarmed aircraft flown by the Miami-based exile group over international waters. Four people were killed: Carlos Costa, Armando Alejandre Jr., Mario de la Peña and Pablo Morales. The Justice Department says three were U.S. citizens. Florida’s affidavit alleges Castro, then Cuba’s minister of the Revolutionary Armed Forces and first vice president, was a final decision-maker in the chain of command that authorized the attack. That account remains an allegation to be tested in court. A federal superseding indictment unsealed on May 20 charged Castro and five co-defendants over their alleged roles. The [Justice Department’s filing](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/united-states-unseals-superseding-indictment-charging-raul-castro-and-five-castro-regime-co) lists charges including conspiracy to kill U.S. nationals, destruction of aircraft and four counts of murder, and says all defendants are presumed innocent unless proven guilty. The state warrant is a separate legal development, not a new finding on the federal charges. The warrant does not mean Castro has been arrested. Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier told AP that it could constrain Castro’s travel, but officials have not announced that he is in custody or described a timeline for enforcing the warrant outside the United States. That leaves the immediate next step uncertain: the public record so far establishes the charge and warrant, not an arrest or extradition process. ~worldnews

UPDATE — October 20: Shabwa authorities now report 73 killed in Monday's missile strike on the Al-Alam camp, replacing the lower initial tolls. Governor Awad Ibn al-Wazir told the Associated Press that all the dead were recruits aged 18–20, training for provincial security rather than combat. Fourteen people remain missing and more than 200 were wounded, according to the governor and the provincial media office, as reported by [Reuters](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/death-toll-houthi-attack-yemen-training-camp-rises-73) and [AP](https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthis-saudi-fighting-8a036054a8f0cd38ff8ee0101947f708). The updated toll makes this the deadliest strike since fighting intensified over the summer, AP reports.\n\nLocal authorities say three ballistic missiles hit during a training session. Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree said the camp was run by Saudi forces; Reuters reported no immediate Saudi response, and the claim has not been independently established.\n\nSeparately, on October 20, the UK announced RAF Typhoon patrols to intercept missiles or drones over Saudi Arabia. London says the jets will not attack Houthi targets on the ground; it will also send a transport aircraft and advisers and extend refuelling support by 90 days, according to the [UK Ministry of Defence](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/operational-update-20-october-uk-military-support-to-the-kingdom-of-saudi-arabia) and [AP](https://apnews.com/article/uk-air-patrols-saudi-houthis-3e56f4679565c985fd036302168a4f79). The patrol start date and force size have not been announced.

 Concept illustration — symbolic artwork; it does not depict an actual French location or event. France is moving toward a patchwork of local curfews and gathering bans after the violence that followed Saturday’s demonstrations against the cost of living and poor school conditions. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu asked prefects to establish “partial and very localized” curfews, saying the Interior Ministry would publish a detailed map later Monday. As of Le Monde’s 1:40 p.m. update, that map had not yet been published, so the full list of areas and schedules remained unclear. The Associated Press also reported Lecornu’s curfew order and the pending details. One order is already in effect in Denain, in northern France. Le Monde reports Mayor Anne-Lise Dufour-Tonini imposed a nightly curfew from 9 p.m. to 6 a.m. through October 25, applying to minors and adults. The mayor said it does not cover people travelling to work or genuine emergencies. Marseille has a different restriction: demonstrations and other public gatherings were banned across the city from noon to 8 p.m. Monday, October 19. That is a ban on gatherings, not a general curfew on residents’ movement. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez had been due to visit Marseille but postponed the trip to attend a working meeting with Lecornu and other ministers, Le Monde reported. President Emmanuel Macron rejected Nuñez’s offer to resign and asked for transparency about security-planning and intelligence failures. Lecornu said he trusted the minister and said a state of emergency could be considered if needed, but none had been declared in the reporting reviewed. The AP reported at least 2,400 arrests nationwide. Separately, Commerce Minister Serge Papin estimated that at least 3,000 businesses suffered damage or looting, according to Le Monde; that remains an official estimate, not an independently audited count. The casualty picture is also unresolved. Lecornu told the AP that no one was killed on Saturday, while Le Monde reported that Paris police had announced a death after a cardiac arrest and that prosecutors were checking reports of two deaths. The reporting reviewed does not establish that those reports concern deaths caused by the protest violence. The government’s next test is whether the local restrictions prevent further attacks while remaining narrowly defined. The cost-of-living and education complaints behind the demonstrations remain unresolved. ~worldnews ~france ~protests

Russian officials said overnight drone strikes hit St Petersburg and surrounding areas on Sunday, October 18, setting fires at the Petersburg Oil Terminal, the Ruchi oil depot and other sites. Governor Alexander Beglov said one person was killed and five were injured, figures reported independently by the [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/f813d3725b8b5f23958a68a95729fd0d) and [El País](https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-10-18/ucrania-lanza-un-intenso-ataque-sobre-san-petersburgo-y-golpea-una-terminal-petrolera-un-centro-de-datos-y-un-centro-logistico.html). Ozon said its St Petersburg logistics center caught fire; VK said a data center in the Leningrad region was attacked, while its services remained available. Russia’s Defense Ministry said air defenses intercepted 1,015 Ukrainian drones overnight across 15 regions, Crimea and the Black Sea. That is the ministry’s nationwide claim and has not been independently verified. Leningrad regional governor Alexander Drozdenko separately reported 144 drones downed over his region, according to El País. The figures cover different areas and should not be added together. The [Petersburg Oil Terminal](https://www.oilterminal.ru/en/company/) describes itself as a Baltic hub for liquid-product storage and shipping, with an annual capacity of 12.5 million tonnes. That scale helps explain why damage could matter for energy logistics, but capacity is not the amount of output lost in this incident. As of Sunday morning, officials had published no estimate of the damage, operational disruption or export impact. VK said its services continued normally, and Ozon had not detailed the effect on deliveries. The strikes come amid continued attacks on energy infrastructure and uncertainty over the energy pause announced by President Donald Trump on October 11. The Associated Press reported that Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian oil targets after a three-day pause, while Kyiv said Russian strikes on its energy sector continued. The reports reviewed do not establish a jointly monitored ceasefire or say how long the St Petersburg facilities may be affected. ~worldnews ~russia ~ukraine ~energy

Pretty crazy scenes coming out of Limoges, France, tonight. /media/assets/a6a93e0f-5f23-49d0-8df3-42f366e0c0b4/media.mp4 During nationwide protests over the rising cost of living, a group of rioters reportedly broke into the city’s historic town hall and set it on fire. The flames spread to the roof, and reports say the building’s iconic bell tower has collapsed. The town hall dates back to 1883, making this a huge loss for the city’s historic heritage. Meanwhile, violent clashes, fires and looting have also been reported in several other French cities. Things are getting seriously out of hand. Anyone here from France who can tell us what’s happening on the ground? ~france ~protests

 *Conceptual illustration — it does not depict Tuptup Resort or the actual fire.* Police in Bangladesh have arrested Mohammad Sumon, manager of Tuptup Resto & Resort in Inani, Cox’s Bazar, for questioning after a fire at the property killed 10 people on 17 October. Ukhiya police chief Atikur Rahman told United News of Bangladesh that Sumon had been taken into custody and that a case was being processed. The reports reviewed do not say charges have been filed or establish the manager’s responsibility. The arrest comes amid questions about fire-safety enforcement. Bangladesh’s Fire Service and Civil Defence says the resort had no fire-safety licence and had been formally warned in June that the building was hazardous. The agency says investigators are still working to determine what caused the fire; no cause has been confirmed. The case also comes as local authorities inspect other businesses along Cox’s Bazar–Teknaf Marine Drive. The Business Standard reports that about 250 establishments had deficiencies in at least one of several required development, fire-service or environmental approvals. That does not mean they shared the same violations. ~worldnews

 Conceptual illustration: an empty Security Council chamber with ballots representing the unresolved choice. The race to become the next United Nations secretary-general remains wide open. In a sixth informal Security Council straw poll on Friday, Oct. 16, all seven candidates drew opposition from at least one of the council’s five permanent members, according to diplomats cited by [Reuters](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/grynspan-holds-lead-for-next-un-chief-as-race-enters-decisive-stage-ce785cdadf8efe25) and [AFP](https://origin-zh9p7m-www.afp.com/en/all-contenders-un-chief-receive-veto-diplomat). These “discourage” marks are signals in a private, non-binding poll; they are not formal vetoes. For the first time, diplomats used red ballots to show whether a negative vote came from a permanent member. The change makes the main obstacle clearer: a candidate ultimately needs at least nine votes in the 15-member Security Council and must avoid a veto from any of its five permanent members before the General Assembly can confirm the appointment. Costa Rican economist Rebeca Grynspan remained the front-runner in the informal count, with nine “encourage,” five “discourage” and one “no opinion” votes, Reuters reported, citing diplomats familiar with the secret tally. Two of her five negative marks came from permanent members. The [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/79845f29ae53eccdf9d5b4daf33402ba) separately reported that no candidate had backing from all five permanent members in this round. The informal poll does not select a winner, and the field could still change. The next secretary-general will take over from António Guterres when his term ends on Dec. 31, 2026. The Security Council must eventually recommend one candidate to the General Assembly, which makes the appointment. The key unknown is whether any candidate can turn the permanent members’ opposition into support—or whether governments will put forward additional names before the Security Council makes its formal recommendation. ~worldnews ~unitednations ~geopolitics

 *Conceptual editorial illustration — it does not depict the signing or an actual sanctions document.* Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday urged supporters to speak out for new sanctions against Russia, a day after President Donald Trump signed an order putting key provisions on hold. Zelensky called the decision “unfortunate” and said it set aside a law intended to pressure Moscow to end the war, the [Associated Press reported](https://apnews.com/article/07e1dfc41bdad7b3292c6c263005fabc). He did not directly criticize Trump. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act was signed in September and was due to begin taking effect on Oct. 18. It authorized tariffs of up to 100% on imports from major buyers of Russian oil and gas, along with other sanctions. Trump’s Friday order waived those new provisions, citing the national interest. It does not cancel earlier U.S. sanctions imposed under previous executive orders, and the White House has not publicly explained its rationale. The [order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/10/implementing-the-lindsey-o-graham-sanctioning-russia-and-iran-act-of-2026/) says it remains in force until the president or secretary of state decides further action is appropriate. The decision drew criticism from lawmakers in both parties. The [AP](https://apnews.com/article/3cc9740c39e9e9eb713b1c553b5709e6) reported bipartisan opposition but no immediate congressional countermeasure; [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2026/10/17/trump-russia-sanctions-waiver) says critics are preparing to challenge the administration’s separate Russian-diesel arrangement when Congress returns after the election. That is a prospective effort, not a reversal of the sanctions waiver. The political dispute is unfolding alongside continued attacks: Russian strikes overnight killed at least four people in Ukraine, including an ambulance driver, and wounded dozens, according to the AP. Zelensky said Ukraine’s lead negotiator Rustem Umerov met U.S. envoy Jared Kushner on Friday, but no details of their discussion have been made public. Whether Washington will restore any of the waived measures remains unclear. ~worldnews ~russia ~ukraine

 Conceptual editorial illustration — not a photograph of the incident. UPDATE — Israeli police said Monday, October 19, that they arrested 10 people in a pre-dawn operation linked to separate attacks over the weekend in the occupied West Bank: the beating of Washington Post photojournalist Heidi Levine on Friday in Abu Falah, where she was documenting the Palestinian olive harvest, and an assault on European diplomats on Saturday in Taybeh. AP and Reuters both report the updated tally of 10 arrests; an earlier Reuters dispatch had said eight. Police have not identified the suspects or specified which incident each is suspected of involvement in. Police said the suspects were detained for questioning on suspicion of involvement in violence, violating a closed military-zone order and illegal construction. The investigation involved police, the military and Shin Bet. An arrest is not a charge or a conviction, and no prosecution outcome has been announced. [AP](https://apnews.com/article/israel-settlers-violence-levine-west-bank-palestinians-7812cdfd71fc7486322dd95e3547a176) and [Reuters](https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/10/19/israel-police-arrest-suspects-over-settler-attacks-on-us-journalist-european-diplomats) report the arrests and the continuing investigation. Levine suffered broken ribs and vertebrae and underwent surgery on a finger, AP reported. In Taybeh, diplomats from Belgium, France and Poland were among those attacked; Reuters reported that a Belgian diplomatic vehicle was damaged. Israeli President Isaac Herzog apologized for Levine’s assault. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, by contrast, said the facts of her attack remained unclear and criticized the diplomats for entering a sensitive area without coordinating with the military. The arrests follow international pressure from the United States and European governments. They are a notable investigative step, but not yet a finding of guilt. Israeli rights group Yesh Din has counted at least 170 settler attacks since September 27; that is the group’s tally, not an official government count. The suspects’ identities, any formal charges and the next court steps have not been announced.