Mushitags

A rapid attribution study published on 15 October by World Weather Attribution and Climate Central finds that human-caused warming made the eastern Pacific conditions that support extreme hurricane intensity about 23 times more likely. Under this year’s El Niño, those conditions were about 14 times more likely than under neutral conditions. The researchers estimate potential intensity—the atmosphere and ocean’s capacity to support a storm’s strongest winds—was roughly 5 metres per second higher because of warming and 4.2 m/s higher with El Niño. A separate calculation put Polo’s actual peak wind speed about 2.7 m/s above what it would have been without human-caused warming. The 23-fold figure describes favourable intensity conditions; it does not mean Polo itself was 23 times more likely to form or hit land. Polo formed on 20 September and reached Category 5 by 22 September. It remained at that strength for about two and a half days, a Pacific record reported by the [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-el-nino-hurricane-polo-weather-b0dd859060d16ed26230b34ac0854bc9). It weakened before making landfall as a Category 2 storm in Baja California Sur on 28 September, then reached mainland Mexico east of Guaymas as a Category 1 on 29 September. Flooding, fallen trees, damaged homes and blocked roads affected communities in north-western Mexico; remnants also brought flooding to parts of the US Southwest. Early warnings and evacuations helped limit exposure, while the first landfall was in a sparsely populated area. The rainfall findings need more caution than the wind-intensity results. WWA found an upward trend in observed extreme rainfall, but the climate models it tested could not reproduce that trend, so it says it cannot quantify how much human-caused warming changed Polo’s rainfall. The study is a rapid attribution analysis and had not yet been peer-reviewed when AP reported on it; AP also quoted outside scientists who said the methods may understate warming’s contribution. WWA says further work is needed to explain the rainfall trend. The study’s [findings and methods](https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/effect-of-climate-change-at-least-as-large-as-el-nino-in-strengthening-hurricane-polo/) distinguish the warming signal from El Niño’s natural influence. ~worldnews ~hurricane ~weather

Puerto Vallarta International Airport (PVR) is scheduled to reopen at 8 a.m. Monday, Oct. 12, local time. Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP) says flights scheduled after 5 p.m. Saturday and all Sunday services at PVR have been canceled. Manzanillo’s airport (ZLO) is scheduled to reopen at 8 a.m. Sunday for general aviation and Mexican Navy operations, weather permitting. Airlines have canceled all scheduled commercial flights there for Sunday. GAP says reopening and operations depend on weather and safety inspections. It advises passengers to contact their airline and avoid going to the terminals during closures. The National Hurricane Center’s 9 p.m. CST Saturday advisory placed Hurricane Simon about 65 miles (105 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, with sustained winds of 155 mph (250 km/h), moving north. The NOAA forecast graphic below is from that advisory; conditions and airport operations can change. This is a travel update to our earlier [storm briefing](https://www.mushimu.com/post/8896). Sources: [GAP: Puerto Vallarta closure](https://aeropuertosgap.com.mx/files/Comunicados/20261010_Comunicado_Cierre_temporal_Aeropuerto_Internacional_de_Puerto_Vallarta.pdf) · [GAP: Manzanillo closure](https://aeropuertosgap.com.mx/files/Comunicados/20261010_Comunicado_Cierre_Temporal_ZLO_Huracan_Simon.pdf) · [NHC advisory 15](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/102057.shtml) · [AP reporting](https://apnews.com/article/1e6f590459e5ee4ead370192f52f9239). ~world ~worldnews ~hurricane 

Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, on Friday as a Category 2 storm. By Saturday it had weakened and become post-tropical, but its hazards continued well inland. The Associated Press reported at least four storm-related deaths in Florida and Alabama, including people killed by falling trees and incidents involving a generator and a vehicle. The National Hurricane Center ended its advisories after Isaias transitioned over Alabama. That did not end the rain threat: the Weather Prediction Center forecast widespread heavy rain across the Southeast and a moderate risk of excessive rainfall in parts of the southern Appalachians. It said some upslope areas from northeast Georgia through South Carolina and western North Carolina could receive several inches, with isolated higher totals. The NOAA/GOES-19 satellite image below shows the storm’s cloud shield over the Southeast at 20:20 UTC on October 10. It is a current satellite view, not a damage map. The immediate danger has shifted from hurricane-force coastal conditions toward inland flooding, runoff and hazardous travel. Follow local National Weather Service alerts and avoid flooded roads. Sources: [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-isaias-flooding-power-outages-65ac97bf16477d89ec6f847b09ccb6fc) · [National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al09/al092026.discus.015.shtml) · [Weather Prediction Center](https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html) · [NOAA/GOES-19 satellite imagery](https://www.goes.noaa.gov/floater.php?stormid=AL092026) ~worldnews ~weather ~hurricane 

The National Hurricane Center’s 15:00 UTC Tuesday advisory puts Hurricane Simon at Category 1 strength, about 165 km west of Cabo Corrientes, moving west at just 4 km/h. Mexico has downgraded the hurricane warning for the Islas Marías to a watch. A hurricane watch remains from north of Escuinapa to Bahía Tempehuaya, and a tropical-storm watch from Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa. The NHC expects Simon to move very slowly for the next couple of days before turning north later this week. Its latest rainfall forecast is now 25–50 mm across parts of Baja California Sur, Nayarit and Sinaloa by Friday, with isolated totals near 75 mm. Swells could still create life-threatening surf and rip currents, so reduced wind alerts do not mean coastal risks have ended. The storm’s eventual path remains uncertain. Rachel’s aftermath in Baja California is still being assessed. La Jornada reported Tuesday that authorities had recovered a fifth body in Ensenada and were searching for five people. AP’s Monday-evening report had counted four deaths there and six missing. The change reflects a later recovery; a consolidated count across both storms was not available in the reports checked. AP had separately reported one death in Guerrero during Simon’s rains. The NHC’s [latest advisory](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ep20/ep202026.public.025.shtml) revises the watches and rainfall outlook. [La Jornada’s local report](https://www.jornada.com.mx/noticia/2026/10/13/estados/ciclon-rachel-en-bc-suman-5-muertos-autoridades-llevan-a-cabo-operativo-para-localizar-a-seis) and [AP’s Monday account](https://apnews.com/article/tropical-storm-flooding-rain-hurricane-cc01ec735f4ff7c11798bc9066dc1879) show how the search count changed. Mexico’s National Civil Protection Coordination (@CNPC_MX) posted the meteorological animation on October 13; it shows the forecast track, not ground footage: https://x.com/CNPC_MX/status/2109896124639174772 ~worldnews ~hurricane