Fed expected to hike rates Wednesday as oil-fueled inflation hardens

A Reuters poll of economists now points to a Federal Reserve rate increase on Wednesday — the first since July 2023 — after hotter inflation data and crude prices above $100 reversed last week's hold consensus. Eighty-five percent of forecasters (86 of 101) expect a quarter-point move to a 3.75%–4.00% range at the Sept. 15–16 meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets already price near a 90% chance of a hike this week, with many economists also expecting at least one further increase by end-March. Oil and record diesel prices tied to Middle East supply shocks are lifting inflation expectations, while the Fed's preferred core PCE gauge was already nearly twice its 2% target. Economists warn that skipping a hike could drive Treasury yields sharply higher. The shift raises political stakes ahead of November midterms as living costs weigh on approval ratings. President Trump has pressed for lower rates, but Warsh has emphasized price stability — setting up a potential clash if the Fed follows through. Source: Reuters Will Warsh's first hike since 2023 cool inflation — or deepen the political fight over the cost of living? https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-rate-hike-wednesday-now-likely-say-economists-least-one-more-follow-2026-09-14/