Israel exit polls project a Likud lead but leave coalition math unresolved

 Israel’s three main television exit polls, released after voting closed at 10 p.m. local time on Tuesday, point to a close and inconclusive election: all project Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud as the largest party, but none shows either political camp near the 61 seats needed to command a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. These are survey estimates, not counted ballots. The accompanying image is a conceptual illustration, not a documentary photograph. The estimates differ by a few seats. Channel 12 projects 24 for Likud and 22 for Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, with the opposing Jewish-led bloc at 52 and Netanyahu’s bloc at 50. Channel 13 puts the parties at 25 and 23, and the blocs at 53 and 50. Kan also projects 25 for Likud, but 21 for Yashar, with the blocs at 53 and 50. All three place Arab-led parties outside those blocs at 17–18 seats. ([Channel 12](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/channel-12-exit-poll-shows-no-clear-victor-netanyahus-likud-is-largest-party-but-his-opponents-have-bigger-bloc/), [Channel 13](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/channel-13-exit-poll-eisenkot-led-bloc-in-lead-likud-as-largest-party-but-neither-camp-gets-majority-amid-record-arab-showing/), [Kan](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/kan-exit-poll-shows-no-clear-victor-as-netanyahus-likud-is-largest-party-but-opponents-have-larger-bloc/)) That gap matters more than which party leads: Likud’s projected first place alone does not secure Netanyahu another term. The Arab-led lists could affect coalition arithmetic, but they are not automatically part of the opposition bloc; whether any would join, support or abstain for a government remains unresolved. Israel’s proportional system also has a 3.25% threshold, so final seat allocations can shift as votes for smaller parties are counted. The Central Elections Committee has begun counting ballots. Broadcasters’ exit polls can differ from the official tally, which is expected to take several days; Reuters reports a final tally is expected by October 30, with formal publication by November 4. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-election-what-happens-after-polls-close-2026-10-27/)) Only after official results are published will President Isaac Herzog consult the elected factions and assign an MK he believes can form a government. That nominee must still assemble a coalition and win Knesset confidence; voters did not directly elect a prime minister. ([Israeli President’s Office](https://www.president.gov.il/en/institution/)) ~world